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A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that go beyond previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the middle-aged born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the most recent general election. He was promoted later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”