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Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just who would win overall, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously backed Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. However no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.