A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
