Everyday Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The mean figure of per-day killings each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new official figures. But, security specialists have advised that murder data could fail to signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we’ve had over these past months is very significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's heavily military operations to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

But, public safety researchers urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally problematic because it might mask periods when there were especially elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to express their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.