‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Availability.

People queue up to buy cooking gas cylinders for domestic use in an Indian city
People line up to buy fuel canisters for domestic use in a major Indian city.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the south. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a financial hub, local news say up to a 20% of eateries are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their gas stocks have depleted with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

A closed restaurant shutter in an Indian city
A restaurant in Chennai which has ceased operations due to a scarcity of kitchen fuel.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the government states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say stocks are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been triggered by false reports. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

An oil tanker at sea representing imports
India imports up to most of the oil it requires, leaving it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in global supplies.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around half of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is cooking gas, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative states price gouging.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next refill.

Robert Ward
Robert Ward

A business strategist and innovation consultant with over 15 years of experience helping companies navigate digital transformation.